This article covers general global shipping trends; however, it’s important to note that local patterns—such as reefer seasons, regional harvests, or localized disruptions—can also significantly impact freight volumes, capacity, and rates. These localized dynamics should be considered alongside broader global patterns when planning your logistics strategy.
The global shipping industry operates in a cyclical pattern influenced by economic activities, major holidays, seasonal production cycles, and geopolitical factors. Understanding these trends can help businesses optimize their supply chain, secure competitive rates, and mitigate disruptions. Perhaps the most significant driver of monthly shipping trends is seasonal demand, which ebbs and flows with regional and global consumption cycles. This article provides a detailed, quarterly and monthly breakdown of shipping patterns, supported by industry data and insights.
Q1 (January-March): Post-Holiday Adjustment and Strategic Positioning
The first quarter is marked by a notable slowdown following the year-end holiday rush. January offers a window for strategic recalibration, including contract negotiations, equipment upgrades, and performance evaluations. February introduces disruption due to the Chinese New Year, during which much of Asia halts production, causing global ripple effects. March sees the industry gradually recover, with volumes rising and trade flows normalizing as spring approaches.
January: Post-Holiday Slowdown & Pre-Lunar New Year Rush
Strategic Focus:
Evaluate past performance, identify areas for improvement. January is a good time to schedule equipment and technology upgrades and to secure favorable contracts for the year.
Key Considerations:
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Cash flow management during a slower period.
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Staff training and development.
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Reviewing and updating business continuity plans.
Key Trade Trends:
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Retail and e-commerce see a decline after the peak holiday season.
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Clearing out remaining inventory, and consumer demand tends to be lower.
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Address backlogs and maintenance.
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Factories in Asia ramp up production before the Lunar New Year holiday, increasing exports.
Rate Trends:
>> Freight rates typically drop in early January due to reduced demand.
>> Rates climb towards the end of the month as shippers rush to move goods before Chinese factories close for Lunar New Year.
February: The Chinese New Year Effect- Proactive Planning and Communication
Strategic Focus:
Looking ahead: Inventory planning and strengthening supplier and carrier ties. February also presents an opportunity to expand networks by building new supplier and carrier partnerships that will support the more demanding months ahead.
Key Considerations:
- Inventory management and buffer stock.
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Flexibility in routing and carrier options.
Key Trade Trends:
- Lunar New Year shutdowns: Most factories in China and other East Asian countries close for up to two weeks, leading to a sharp decline in exports.
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Supply chain interruptions: Limited container availability and delayed bookings due to reduced port and inland transport operations.
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Inventory shortages risk: Importers who didn’t plan ahead may face stockouts due to missed sailings and production halts.
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Post-holiday recovery lag: Even after the holiday ends, factories take time to resume full-scale operations, extending supply chain delays into late February.
Rate Trends:
>> Early February softness: Freight rates drop at the start of the month due to the lull in bookings post-January pre-holiday rush.
>> Late February volatility: Spot rates may spike briefly after factories reopen, especially on major trade lanes like Asia– North America and Asia– Europe, as pent-up demand hits capacity.
>> Carriers reduce service frequencies, known as "blank sailings", to adjust for lower volumes, restricting capacity and affecting available space as demand returns. (Blank sailings are when a shipping line cancels a sailing, skipping a port or an entire voyage)
March: Gradual Recovery - Market Monitoring and Flexibility
Strategic Focus:
March calls for a sharp focus on market responsiveness and operational flexibility. As trade volumes begin to rebound following the disruptions of February, logistics teams must closely monitor shifting market conditions and adjust their strategies in real-time. Flexibility becomes critical to accommodate fluctuating volumes and potential delays.
Key Considerations:
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Updated demand forecasting for Q2.
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Operational readiness to handle volume increases.
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Financial planning for growth.
Key Trade Trends:
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Factory restarts: Production ramps back up in Asia, especially in China, leading to increased outbound shipments.
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Retail restocking: North American and European retailers begin placing spring orders- fashion, home goods, garden equipment.
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Agricultural season onset: Increased exports of fresh produce from Latin America, North Africa, and Southeast Asia.
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Stable port activity: Port congestion starts to ease compared to February, with more predictable schedules and fewer operational disruptions.
Rate Trends:
>> Steady upward movement: Freight rates begin to rise gradually as capacity is reabsorbed and demand climbs.
>> More stable sailings: Carriers reintroduce previously blanked sailings to match increasing volumes.
>> Longer transit bookings: Some shippers begin locking in longer contracts or advanced bookings to avoid the high volatility expected in late Q2 and Q3.
As Q1 closes, the industry shifts from reflection to readiness. March sets the tone for rising volumes and new opportunities, paving the way for a more assertive Q2 as supply chains rebuild momentum.
Up next: Part 2 will cover Q2 trends (April–June), including the Spring Ramp-Up, the Pre-Summer Shipping Peak, and the Summer Kickoff: three critical phases for optimizing freight strategies before peak season begins.
